eadline default rates can provide an incomplete picture of credit conditions, particularly when restructurings, PIK amendments and maturity extensions delay the recognition of borrower stress. As refinancing pressures build and performance becomes increasingly uneven, investors need a broader framework for identifying where deterioration is emerging and understanding how it could affect recoveries, valuations and risk premiums across public and private credit markets. 

This session will examine how investors can use BDC portfolio data to assess the evolving credit cycle more effectively. Dominique Bly will explore which indicators can help identify stress before it appears in reported defaults, where risks are becoming concentrated across sectors, vintages and borrower sizes, and what changing recovery expectations could mean for portfolio positioning and relative value across the broader credit market.