Credit Invest USA 2026 Predictions Are In - What’s Yours?

As we look ahead to 2026, the credit community has thoughts - bold, insightful and contrarian. Here are some of the top predictions shared by our network so far:

1. Infrastructure providers outperform, enabling asset managers and originators to place more private credit across HNW, 401(k), and retail channels responsibly.

2. Public credit spreads stay rangebound, tightening private ABF and credit.

3. CITs emerge as the preferred retail access vehicle, especially for specialist managers.

4. PIK and defaults pick up, driving more litigation across private credit.

5. AI-linked assets face a correction, including data centers.

6. AI-related layoffs shift public sentiment against the technology.

7. Strong markets, higher volumes, tighter spreads.

8. Higher unemployment and higher asset prices - yes, both.

9. Private credit keeps compounding, fueled by the AI super-cycle and massive capex needs - potentially putting the asset class on a path to $10T within a decade.

10. Credit quality deteriorates, defaults rise, and banks feel the pressure through leveraged facilities.

11. Bond vigilantes return, demanding higher Treasury yields (but no full sovereign crisis).

12. Markets wobble on headlines, then revert to normal.